At present, the recovery rate from corona virus in India remains at 97.28%, which can be said to be better. Despite this, the danger of the third wave cannot be taken lightly. At the same time, looking at the current situation in India, it can be easily said that the third wave of corona is sure to come in the country. Why we are saying this, will explain and tell you with analysis. In many states of the country, new cases of corona have started increasing again. Among the increasing cases of corona, the most important thing is the R-factor, which shows the speed of spread of the virus.
Try to understand it further, then think of it like this, that the R value tells the number of people infected by an infected person. If the value of R factor is above 1, it means that an infected person can spread the infection to more than one person. According to the Ministry of Health, the lowest number of 30,093 new cases of corona virus were reported in India today within 125 days. The recovery rate has increased to 97.37% while the daily positivity rate is 1.68%.
But, in many areas of India, it is coming to the fore that the value of R is increasing. According to an analysis by Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences, the R-factor is higher in the first week of July as compared to June. Because India’s effective fertility rate (R) has increased from 0.88 last week to 0.97. In fact, many states of the Northeast have seen an increase in active cases of corona. Overall R value – an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading. It tells how many people on average are infected by a COVID positive person.
At the same time, the positivity rate in 73 districts of the country is more than 10 percent, which is a matter of concern. Only two states of Maharashtra and Kerala account for 52 percent of the total cases of corona infection in the country. According to Sitabhara Sinha, a researcher at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences in Chennai, the state of Kerala – currently the state with the highest number of active cases. Which is most worrying as its R value increased from 1 to 1.10 last week. In this way, its speed has increased in the northeastern states.
This is the reason that to prevent the third wave of Corona, some states of the Northeast have announced to impose lockdown. The rising corona cases in the northeastern states have worried the central government along with the state governments. According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, about 80 percent of the cases of corona are being seen from 90 districts and 14 of them are from the North East. 73 districts of the country in which the positivity rate is more than 10 percent, 46 districts were from the northeastern states. So there are still more new cases coming in many states. Kerala is also one of these states. In view of Bakrid, the Kerala government has announced to relax the restrictions implemented due to Corona from 18 to 20 July.
The ‘R-factor’ has recently increased as new concerns are raised about the re-emergence of the epidemic, which has slowed down the reduction in active cases. Kerala and the northeastern states have emerged as areas of concern. This is clearly stated in the analysis of Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences. The R-factor gives an indication about the pace of spread of the infection in the country. Researchers have also said that the level of infection was low in the northeastern states during the first wave, but this was not seen in the second wave. “The situation remains critical in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura,” he said.
Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Health, Luv Aggarwal also said that the cases of Covid19 have come down but there are still some concerns. In such a situation, we all should strictly follow the Covid protocol. The end of the epidemic can happen only when this figure is less than 1. But at present this does not seem to be happening. NITI Aayog member (health) Dr VK Paul said that the possibility of a third wave remains as the population is still very vulnerable to infection. “We have not yet reached the stage of community immunity…we don’t want to get infected by getting community immunity,” he warned. ‘ We are making progress in vaccines and about 50 percent of our most at-risk group, people over the age of 45, are protected. It will also reduce the mortality rate, but there may be spread of infection. We can come under the purview of infection. The virus is still around us.”
